The Perils of Peaceful Revolutions

Over the last few weeks, several Middle Eastern and North African countries have had peaceful revolutions. Widespread protests forced the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt out of power and as a result, civil war broke out in Libya. As of this writing, protests have been slowly gaining traction in Yemen, Bahrain, Morocco and Lebanon. Much has been said about this upwelling of popular discontent and what it means for the spread of freedom and democracy. However, few commentators have asked a fairly important question – what happens once the oppressive ruler is forced out of power? Once in power, a new government faces a whole host of challenges. Unless they are addressed, the promise of the revolution could easily be squandered, leaving the people not much better off than they were before.

A revolution is a great unifying force. It gives the various opposition groups a reason to put aside their differences and unite under a common cause. However, once the enemy is defeated, the factional differences tend to re-emerge. It happened in Ukraine, after the 2004 Orange Revolution. The revolution came about because the authoritarian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych rigged the elections in his favor. The public outcry turned into massive protests, which led to a more transparent run-off that saw Yanukovych lose to his closest rival, Viktor Yushchenko. While Yushchenko's term started out hopefully, his government soon collapsed into factional infighting as Yushchenko and his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, jockeyed for control. By 2010, the popularity of Yushchenko's government fell to the point where Yanukovych was able to legitimately win the election. Upon assuming power, he reversed many reforms placed during Yushchenko's term. The once-promising Orange Revolution ended not in a bang, but a whimper.

Even if the new government manages to avoid infighting, it still has to improve the conditions in their country. The notions of freedom and democratic progress ring hollow if the country still faces food shortages, high unemployment, poor living conditions, ethnic and religious discrimination and other problems that helped to inspire the popular discontent in the first place. They will have to address the decades-long legacy of corruption and political repression and find a way to punish those responsible without being overly punitive. This issue is particularly relevant in Egypt's case. As of this writing, we have already seen vandalism and sectarian clashes between Muslim and Christian Egyptians. Just as importantly, they would need to be able to ensure order and stability with- out being overly repressive. These challenges are formidable and not something the new government can afford to put off. Unless the new Egyptian government can deliver some mea- sure of progress within the next few months, they risk finding themselves on the receiving end of popular discontent.

As the new government sets out to improve its country, it must try its best to ensure that it does not repeat the mistakes of its predecessor. It goes without saying that maintaining law and order is important but if it resorts to heavy-handed tactics to enforce it, the populace will quickly turn against them. Even if that does not happen right away, their popular sup- port could erode. The government officials must also ensure that corruption is not tolerated on any level. During Hosni Mubarak's reign, the Egyptian government cracked down on any sign of corruption from the opposition, while tolerating corruption among Mubarak's supporters. Since the corruption went unchecked for decades, the new Egyptian government will be held to a higher standard, so it must be especially careful to avoid any appearance of impropriety. This may be difficult to pull off, as many of the officials involved are used to working in a corruption-driven environment and do not have much experience in facilitating transparency.

A popular, peaceful revolution offers a wealth of opportunities. However, overthrowing a tyrant is not enough. All of the challenges outlined above are formidable but they must be addressed and resolved. Otherwise, whatever potential the revolution may have had will be squandered. After all the lives lost and everything the people sacrificed to bring it about, that is not something the country can afford.