The Perils of Peaceful Revolutions - Why Winning isn't Always Enough

Over the last few weeks, several Middle Eastern and North African countries have been rocked by peaceful revolutions. Widespread protests forced the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt out of power, a civil war broke out in Libya and, as of this writing, protests have been slowly gaining traction in Yemen, Bahran, Morocco and Lebanon. Much has been said about this upwelling of popular discontent and what it means for the spread of freedom and democracy. But few commentators have asked a fairly important question: what happens once the oppressive ruler is forced out of power? Once in power, a new government faces a whole host of challenges. Unless they are addressed, the promise of the revolution could easily be squandered, leaving the people not much better off than they were before.

A revolution is a great unifying force. It gives the various opposition groups an imperious to put aside their differences and unite under a common cause. But once the enemy is defeated, the factional differences tend to emerge. It happened in Ukraine, after 2004 Orange Revolution, which came about because the authoritarian Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, rigged the elections in his favor. The public outcry turned into massive protests, which led to a more transparent run-off, that saw Yanukovych lose to his closest rival, Viktor Yushchenko. But while Yushchenko's term started out hopefully, his government soon collapsed into factional infighting, as Yushchenko and his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, jockeyed for control. By 2010, the popularity of Yushchenko's government fell to the point where Yanukovych was able to legitimately win the election. Upon assuming power, he reversed many reforms put during Yushchenko's term. The once-promising Orange Revolution ended not in a bang, but in a whimper.

But even if the new government manages to avoid infighting, it still has to improve the conditions in their country. The notions of freedom and democratic progress ring hollow if the country still faces foot shortages, high unemployment, poor living conditions, ethnic and religious discrimination and other problems that helped to inspire the popular discontent in the first place. They will have to address the decades-long legacy of corruption and political repression, and find a way to punish those responsible, without being overly punitive. This issue is particularly relevant in Egypt's case. As of this writing, we have already seen vandalism and sectarian clashes between Muslim and Christian Egyptians. Just as importantly, they would need to be able to ensure order and stability, without being overly repressive. Those are formidable challenges, but they are not something that the new governments can afford to put off. Unless the new Egyptian and Tunisian governments can deliver some measure progress within the next few months, their people risk finding themselves on the receiving end of popular discontent.

While the new government sets out to improve its country, it must try its best to ensure that it does not repeat the mistakes of its predecessor. As already mentioned, maintaining order is important, but if it resorts to heavy-handed tactics to enforce it, the populace would quickly turn against them. Even if that does not happen right away, their popular support would be eroded. The government officials must also ensure that corruption is not tolerated on any level. During Hosni Mubarak's reign, the Egyptian government cracked down on any sign of corruption from the opposition, while tolerating corruption among Mubarak's supporters. Because the corruption went unchecked for decades, the new Egyptian government will be held to a higher standard, so it must be especially careful to avoid any appearance of impropriety. This may be difficult to pull off, as many of the officials involved are used to working in a corruption-driven environment and do not have much experience in facilitating transparency.

A popular, peaceful revolution offers a wealth of opportunities. It gives a country a chance to throw off decades of corruption and repression and usher in a new era of equality, transparency and improved living conditions. But merely overthrowing a tyrant is not enough. All of the challenges outlined above are formidable, but (this bears repeating) they must be addressed and resolved. Otherwise, whatever potential the revolution may have would be squandered. After all the lives that were lost and everything the people sacrificed to bring it about, that is not something a country can afford.